Admittedly MA crossovers are regarded by most people as utterly meaningless, and I understand that - why should the crossing of 2 MA's signify anything, right?

Have any of the more seasoned traders on this forum managed to incorporate this signal into their system? Before the advent of computers prior to they worked well but not any more. Same applies to most mechanical trading systems. In a trending market or the start of a trend they look good, but to be honest, you could enter on any signal!

Once the market starts ranging, the MA cross won't work that well. I started with an Simple Moving Average system. I had success with it, but if you're going to use moving average strategy for your trading, in my opinion there are better ways to apply a moving average. What I found when I used it you got a lot of great entry signals, but terrible exit. For example Look at these two charts same pair, same periods. On first chart the pink line is a 5sma, applied to close shift 1 the other yellow line is a 3 period sma simple close.

The idea is when yellow is on top at the cross you go long and stay long until it crosses again and pink line is on top. Same for pink when its on top you go short and stay short til it crosses again. Entry and exit is confirmed by AO. If you want less signals increase the periods. The second chart is a 24 simple close. The line doesn't have to be different colors, I use to have one color. If candle closes above the SMA you go long and look at your major resistance to see if you have strong resistance area, where price could bounce for me there's other considerations so in this case I would have went short on the 2nd candle instead of waiting for the close below.

To me I find the second chart better. However if you have your heart set on trying the cross. Go to utube and watch this traders video's. VERTY IMPORTANT On his website he offers a SMA course for free. He also offer's 2 or 3 addons. None are worth what he is asking. They are just more information about the free course. He also offers free access to trading rooms, but that's how he makes his video's. He also sells an alert package.

Again not worth the money In my opinion. But like I said his free course is a great beginner course. Thanks for the info.

With regards to MAs giving poor exit signals, the same has been made apparent to me through my own experiences; I've found more success with exits by looking for signs that the current trend is beginning to exhaust. I'm also surprised that you've used such low period MA's on the first chart. I've been predominantly using a SMA and a 62SMA - I'll have to start experimenting with different setting.

I've also tried similar things to what you've shown with your second chart. They didn't work out so weel at the time, but perhaps I should pay them more thought.

Do you still use MA's anywhere in the strategy you use today? If I try basing a system around MA's, are there any other confirmation tools that you feel would complement this approach nicely? On another note, I've actually seen a reasonable MA based system on Forex Factory here: MAT - Moving average trendline system Forex Factory. I tried running it on a demo account for about a week and found it to be quite effective.

Yes, I've boiled it down to a very rudimentary strategy, but, at the end of the day this is what MA crossovers are all about. If it were this easy and consistent, everyone would be trading with this tactic. I usually employ a simple sniff test whenever I see someone talk about a new or old strategy which I never particularly employed: Personally, my strategy involves anywhere from potentially even 10 in rare cases requirements to be met before I even consider looking the risk-reward potential.

As far as backtesting- any system would look "to be a relatively reliable signal" to a trader trying to find a system, because of simple confirmation bias. Not saying that is the case here. But, when you want to find a profitable strategy and you're jumping around from method to method, studying old charts, it's really easy to only focus on the scenarios which would have worked out in your favor.

I have a core of professional traders I've followed for years now- none of them use an MA crossover, nor have I ever heard the strategy talked about in a professional setting. For some people it works, for others, it doesn't. You've been around for just about a year now- is there a reason why you're exploring this topic?

Do you have a strategy currently? MA systems are the most reliable long term, understanding how to structure a chart can be a difficulty, not every signal will be valid as with any other system.

Some professional sales people stay away from moving averages in their sales material because they have to resort to 'scientific ' approaches to sell their junk. You're trying to make the point that a simple MA cross over doesn't work. Then you go on to say for some people it works and for some it doesn't. Basically, you got a wall of text with no point. Your first sentence also discredits your expertise. Not trying to start anything. I agree with you for the most part. It was just confusing to read.

Wow, that's quite a lot. Do you not find that you're trading very infrequently, as a result of this? Also, do you find that you miss a lot of good trades just because 1 indicator didn't align? What's the most common approach amongst these professionals? Do any of them use mechanical systems? About 3 months ago I was trading live for about a month.

I felt like a had a pretty good win rate, but I didn't trade that often. Every time I looked at a chart, the way I analysed it was different and the only thing I kept consistent were my lot sizes.

After that, I decided to close my account and forget about it all for a little while, as it was distracting me from school work and I had important exams coming up. I'm now just getting back into things, and I want to do it properly.

I'm trying to devise my first system, but I'm completely unsure of which approach to take. I like the idea of developing a mechanical system, because I could code it as an expert advisor. However, most mechanical systems seem too simple to work as you said, everyone would be rich if trading was a matter of following objective instructions. I've also noticed that a lot of people swear by price action, and I've considered specialising in that.

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Again, other people seem to firmly believe in approaches like volume price analysis, and the list goes on. I currently have about 2. I'm just trying to find answers to questions such as this to help me make an informed decision; I've been asking a very broad range of questions lately though not so much on this forum.

If you have any advice regarding this situation, I'd be very grateful to hear it. I usually employ a simple sniff test whenever I see someone talk about a new or old strategy which I never particularly employed:.

I agree with you. My sniff test for everything concerning a strategy old and new. In my opinion any and all trading methods should be boiled down to 5 parts: Trend Momentum, Cycle, Support and Resistance. As well as each trade. I think if you start with 1. How is Trend apply addressed in this trade or trading method. How is Momentum addressed in this trade or trading method. How is Cycle addressed 4. How is Support 5. The Awesome Oscillator addresses momentum, The actual crosses address cycle.

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The first cross is the start of a new cycle, the second is the end. The strategy does not address Support and Resistance. How would you plan your entry stop loss and take profit targets ahead of time. Everything is based on the cross. If you look at the bottom chart and ask the same 5 questions all questions are answered close above long, close below short, addresses cycle the same wy. Simeple volume addresses momentum. Add support and resistance and you can plan your entry, stop loss and profit targets not only based on what price is doing currently but also what it done in the past.

There's nothing wrong with looking or thinking about something new vs somthing old. You have to remember a couple of things to remember. You can't teach an old dog new tricks. If you want to be successful long term in this business you should be open to learning new things.

When you compare something, make sure you're comparing apples to apples, not oranges. Trading a daily time frame with 60 sma crossed with a 30 sma will not give you the same results as using that same ma cross on a 15 minute chart. I used the cross on shorter time frames in the beginning, but with a little experience as I said yo have to go behind a simple cross to maximize your opportunities trading.

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Never explicitly said it doesn't work, nor tried to make that point that it simply "doesn't work". Go back and re-read my first post. If anything, you misinterpreted what I was trying to say, and, I didn't convey what I was trying to get across as accurately as I thought. What I did say was that solely relying on a MA crossover to enter and exit the market would at bes t be weak -moderately profitable in the long run. How do I know this, even though I've never tested or traded the strategy?

When you're looking simply 1 way to enter and exit the market a MA crossover , you're not trading like a professional, thus will never reach that status.

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I'm basing my assumptions off my experience with the strategies out there, and those who are professionals and the strategies they employ. It's not to say that there isn't a guy or gal out there who trades a MA crossover who isn't a professional, I'm just saying I have yet to come across them and have my doubts on their numbers.

Exactly- for some people it works, for some it doesn't. Some people will find profitability trading H4 pinbars, some won't. Some people will find profitability trading MACD, others won't. Sometimes the USD will get gobbled up on a stronger-than-expected NFP print, other times it won't.

The market will always do exactly what you thought it would, except when it doesn't. Take my comments as you may. The bottom line is that where there is one "reason" to enter and exit any single market, the probability of having the supporting trading history to show that system is profitable in the long run is very slim, simply due to the fact that such a strategy is not prevalent.

Trading is simply not that "easy". Right now I'm averaging 1. This is just an average, but, the signals I get are highly dependent on my availability to study the charts. I spend hours a day monitoring charts exclusively. The more time I have on the charts, the more opportunities I can find.

The majority of my entries will be on the low end of that requirement figure- i. These are my "core signals"- my bread and butter money-makers where my risk parameters are "normal". On a weaker signal, I risk less.

On an average signal, I risk my normal amount. On a strong signal, I risk more- but, require additional confirmation. For example- when I trade NF: I typically bump my leverage out above 15 or In order to do that, I require additional confirmation a fundamental, currency strength meter, multiple points of convergence across multiple timeframes, etc.

That's not easy to answer, because the professionals I've sought out are the ones who employ tactics which I'm interested in- so I can't really answer that question. Yes, there will always be the necessity for discretionary-based trading. Robots will never be able to gauge the "feel" of the market. Only humans can do this after years of experience. You're going to need to develop your own unique strategy. If you wanted to become a professional golfer, you'd want to take lessons from the best of the best- right?

Let's say you had the opportunity to train with Tiger Woods for 2 months straight. In the beginning, you'd want to buy all the same gear he has, and copy every movement and aspect of his life to become as successful as he is. Human beings will inherently always seek out the alpha, and attempt to replicate their behaviors in hopes of one day attaining the same level of success.

However, you'll realize one day that just because Tiger uses Nike shoes and Callaway clubs, doesn't mean that you'll have the same success as him with the same product.

It's all about finding yourself in the process, and creating a strategy which speaks to your abilities, whilst suppressing your weaknesses. If you're really good at recognizing patterns quickly, maybe you should trade harmonics. If you're a math nut, maybe you need to be exporting data to excel and calculating algorithms. No one will be able to answer this question for you , on any forum in the world.

The answer lies within you as cheesy as that sounds - you need to seek it out on your own. At the end of the journey of discovering your trading strategy which truly never ends , lies one of the most revealing experiences as to who you are as an individual - not just a monkey interacting with a price chart.

I started with lower period MA crosses confirmed with an Oscillator. I tried quite a few and I liked Awesome Oscillator the best. Line up the cross with the oscillator or vice versa and enter, exit when the cross and the oscillator changed.

Shorter the time frame shorter the shorter the MA period. Soon as I got a little more experience, I found although it was okay in the beginning, very simple to understand and execute, you could not get the maximum opportunity trading with it. No matter what the cross or confirmation, all currency pairs on all time frames are moving in one of three ways.

Trending, Ranging or Sideways. All currency pairs on all time frames are continually in one of four states. Accumulating, Marking Up, Distributing or Marking Down. If you do that 1st, you also be able to see what type of the three currency movements the pair is in.

If the pair was in the accumulating or distributing areas, those are what traders refer to as markets are ranging or sideways markets. If the pair is in the markup or markdown phase those are what traders refer to as trending markets. Your trading methods have to address both. Candles are either below or above.

All pairs all time frames. In my opinion if you stick with Moving Averages you will go with one MA to incidate trend and cycle, and confirming oscillator to address momentum. If you use a color MACD , that will indicate momentum and cycle. Support and Resistance lines are drawn based on past price. I mostly trade the 15 minute time frame. If candles are not moving below or above I see quickly pair is sideways. If candles are going above and below with a spread of above 50 pips and below 50 pips is market is trending.

Along with the 24sma, I use a Simple Volume, Money flow index indicators, Support and Resistance I have a few favorites. Keep at it, keep learning and practicing trying to make the same mistake the least mount of times. My thoughts on MA are that they are a reasonable signal for entering trades, but I generally ignore them for planning my exits. They come in useful for identifying longer term trends if used correctly, but they generally fail to pick reversals in trends, so they rarely are much use for calling an exit.

PA is more adapt for indentifying the exit signal. God knows, I've been guilty of it many times. I think it really depends on the trader. I personally do not use an MA strategy, but I have met a few traders who only rely on it and modified it so that it makes sense and it profitable for them in the long-term. My point is that it really does not matter if others are successful with it as long as you will be should you use one. The same holds true for any other trading strategy.

It always boils down to you as the trader. Yes, you cannot simply open a trade when one line crosses another. I will certainly be looking for further confirmations before risking my money.

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Try to incorporate this into your current MA system with further confirmations like RSI and see how you do. Definitely a MA crossover can be used as an enhancement to a trade.

Only problem I'd argue is that you're going to be subject to late entries and exits. No thanks- I'm comfortable with my current strategy and don't need any more distractions on my charts.

You can probably build a decent strategy though with MAs and RSI. I just prefer what I mentioned above already and am not looking to change anything. Here's how I see it: Has anyone here found long term success using MA Crossover strategies? Backtesting is hard because you will always have a skewed perspective. Try demo trading live with MA crossover and see what results you get.

Raghee Horner is a great trader and the guts of her system is ma's and she uses many.