A contentious and bitter battle for the White House lies ahead in Investors might want to ignore it. Excluding , presidential election years going back to have seen an average return of 9.

History on how presidential elections affect stock markets - ABC News

Stovall, in a Dec. Presidential election years have seen small caps rise Overall, the election-year data is encouraging, he said. Not everyone is so sanguine.

In his outlook, Belski took the data back to In other words, presidential election years have been pretty average. In , of course, voters must select a new president to replace Barack Obama, who is set to complete his second term. Belski notes, however, that will mark the first election where an outgoing Democratic president has had a Republican-controlled Congress.

At the same time, however, market performance has actually tended to be stronger when the unemployment rate and inflation are above average in the third year of the election cycle see charts below. So in the end, how stocks perform in an election year might have less to do with the candidates than the economic backdrop that will frame the battle.

William Watts is MarketWatch's deputy markets editor, based in New York. Follow him on Twitter wlwatts. By using this site you agree to the Terms of Service , Privacy Policy , and Cookie Policy.

Intraday Data provided by SIX Financial Information and subject to terms of use. Historical and current end-of-day data provided by SIX Financial Information. All quotes are in local exchange time. Real-time last sale data for U.

Intraday data delayed at least 15 minutes or per exchange requirements. Ebay launches price matching program.

Etsy's stock rallies 0.

Etsy job cuts are in addition to layoffs announced in May. Nationstar to move call center operations back to U.

Updated Gold prices rise from 5-week lows as dollar eases. Updated Oil turns slightly higher as traders await fresh U. Updated Forget ping pong, this is the hot new work perk.

Nationstar Mortgage's to create jobs by moving call center ops back to U. Nationstar Mortgage to move its international call center operations back to U.

predictions: What presidential election years mean for stocks - MarketWatch

Updated 15 jaw-dropping predictions for workers over These stocks may be ready to pick up the bullish baton from techs. Home News Viewer Video SectorWatch Podcasts First Take Games Portfolio My MarketWatch.

Retirement Retire Here, Not There Encore Taxes How-to Guides Social Security Estate Planning Events Columns Robert Powell's Retirement Portfolio Andrea Coombes's Working Retirement Tools Retirement Planner How long will my money last?

Economy Federal Reserve Capitol Report Economic Report Columns Darrell Delamaide Rex Nutting Tools Economic Calendar. My MarketWatch Watchlist Alerts Games Log In. What presidential election years mean for stocks.

Stock Market Performance During Election Years

By William Watts Deputy markets editor. More Coverage Oracle earnings: Time for results to match the bluster Avoid these chemicals found in everything from shampoo to kitchen counters: Stocks Markets NY Stock Exchange NASDAQ. We Want to Hear from You Join the conversation Comment. MarketWatch Site Index Topics Help Feedback Newsroom Roster Media Archive Premium Products Mobile.

Dow Jones Network WSJ.